So, Now What?

The Niagara real estate market has seen incredible swings over the last 3-4 years. We started out
historically undervalued and not on the radar of GTA buyers, really, until 2019. Slowly there was some
momentum building and our confidence started to grow. Then, BOOM! Like so many sectors of the
business world, real estate came to a screeching halt in April 2020. No need to mention the “C word” –
we’ve all grown quite tired of it. However, unlike many other parts of the socio-economic world, what
came next was unprecedented growth. Sales and prices absolutely soared. It was so crazy that when
giving an assessment of a property to owners, you had to tell them “this could change in 24-48 hours”.
Really – it was like throwing a dart at a moving dartboard.

Next, was a very short time of a balanced market. A very short time. Suddenly it was like someone
turned off the water while you were in the shower. Meetings with sellers became discussions on price
reductions, instead of presentations of multiple offers. Over the next 12 months, a lot of the gains in
average price evaporated. We were still strongly ahead of 2019, but the mountain peak had come and
gone.

Then the interest rates rose, and took a substantial number of potential buyers out of the market. The
2023 sales numbers were as historically low as the 2021 numbers were historically high. Pricing has, at
best, “levelled off”. This now is the new reality. There are fewer buyers, but with quite a number of
options to choose from. Conditional offers once again are a normal part of the negotiation proces
As we begin February 2024, we again ask the question, “So, now what?”

You could ask for predictions from 10 prognosticators, and you’ll get 12 different answers. Most predict
that the Bank of Canada will lower the prime lending rate a smidge or two this year. Many predict
healthy spring market. Some predict significant growth in both sales numbers and pricing. It’s all
speculative. It might be “educated guesses” but who really knows what is coming? In real estate, we rely
on data and market trends, and these certainly look to indicate a stronger 2024 than 2023. But, as we
saw in 2020, it can all change in an instant.
While we can only guess where real estate goes, the real test is where everything else in this world is
headed. Wars, elections, environmental issues, social disruptions, world economic challenges and
changes – there is lots going on in this leap year. The key to a calm peaceful state of mind is to actually
take a leap – a leap of faith. Trust in the King, the one on the real throne, the one who promises that not
a hair can fall from your head without His knowledge. Trust in the Lord – He’s got the whole world in His
hands!
“He who calls you is faithful; He will surely do it.” 1 Thessalonians 5:24

• Randy Mulder